The Fall Of Howard - Tommy's Guide To The Honeymoon

Now, we all know Rudd-mania is running wild, and has been since December. Guy's the tits. With Vampire Butters at the helm, Labor's standing in Newspoll has gone from a three/four point lead under Beazley, to an eighteen point lead. If an election was held on Tuesday, K-Rudd would not only be the Prime Minister and be given the keys to the lodge, it is very likely he would have been given the keys to Janette Howard too.

But, there's always haters. Just like Latham had to deal with the News Limited cronies, Sydney's taxi drivers and his own awesomeness, K-Rudd has to combat the most powerful force in Australian politics - the press gallery.

Channel Nine's Laurie Oakes is not only a member of the Press Gallery, he is also undefeated in the 'Fluffy Bunny' marshmallow game.

You see, the press gallery like their stories. Politics isn't just a random series of events and reactions, it's a narrative. When Burke-Gate broke, it was 'Rudd's first test as a leader', and 'The Honeymoon was over'.

When Rudd got caught in the Sunrise/Anzac Day fiasco, it was 'Rudd's Digger Insult', and 'NOW the Honeymoon was over'.

When big business and the mining companies attacked Labor's IR policy, it was 'Rudd vs Business' and 'NOW the Honeymoon is REALLY over, even though we said it was over three months ago'.

Unlike Rudd's, this honeymoon was over when the wife ate the mini-bar

Yet the polls keep contradicting the story. The people of Australia aren't playing to the script. BurkeGate was the crafty Howard trapping Rudd in a political net. The Sunrise Dawn Service was meant to erode Rudd's popularity. The business opposition to the IR policy was meant to undermind the Vampire's leadership. But it didn't.

Take the budget. It was a masterpiece, if you believe the press gallery. The first shot in the election. The Liberals were taking the agenda away from K-Rudd. Costello was brilliant. The Government was back in front. And what do we get, a week after the budget?

Labor 59-41, up two points from the Newspoll before the budget.

Here's a graph.


So what's the point of this blog? That newspaper columnists and television reporters focus too much on political point-scoring that has absolutely no effect on the public's perception of the two parties? That Australians don't care about manufactured political controversies?


No. The point is that Tommy can make a graph.


Suck it, Miss Reynolds, Year 9 Maths Teacher.

I finally did it.